Despite the introduction of new technologies, and the improvement of old technologies, by 2040, emissions will be more than 6% higher than they were in 2019. What does all of this mean for emissions? Carbon emissions from road transport will peak in 2033 at 7.4 gigatons of CO2 before gradually declining. We expect autonomous vehicles, or robotaxis, to arrive in the second half of the 2030s, by which point electric vehicles are forecast to be cheaper than equivalent internal combustion vehicles, so that autonomous vehicles are likely to be electric. Additionally, BNEF expects that electric vehicle adoption by these services will increase faster than that of privately-owned vehicles due to better economics. ![]() Shared mobility services such as Uber, DiDi Chuxing and Grab will help satisfy the rising demand for transport in developing markets, and will lead to an additional 1.7 trillion miles travelled by 2040. In the heavy truck segment, natural gas and hydrogen fuel cell trucks will play a role in decarbonizing the sector, supported by policies in California, South Korea and Germany, among others. Amazon, UPS and other major fleet operators have committed to buying electric delivery vans, while major automakers like Volkswagen have set ambitious electric vehicle production targets. There are already more than 250 million electric two- and three-wheelers on the world’s roads, which, if powered by oil would consume almost 700,000 b/d of road fuel. Early signs suggest that passenger cars, delivery vans and two- and three-wheelers will be the first to be electrified. Combined, they will erode almost 15 million barrels per day of oil demand growth by 2040. China, the world’s largest two-wheeler market, has also introduced mandates for two-wheelers.īNEF expects electric, hydrogen fuel cell and natural gas vehicles to each play a role in powering road transport in future. Mandates have also extended beyond passenger cars, with the U.S., China and Europe among major markets to introduce mandates to improve the fuel economy of commercial trucks. Meanwhile, other markets are impacted by regulations in these countries as they seek to develop competing legislation or inherit fuel economy improvements through importing second-hand vehicles to meet domestic demand. Ambitious fuel economy targets have already led to a peak in road fuel demand in the U.S, Europe, South Korea and Japan, according to BNEF analysis. Mandated fuel economy improvements have, and will continue to, impact oil demand in road transport more than any other factor over the next decade. Combined, this means there will be almost 2 million barrels per day lower demand for fossil fuel-derived road fuels in 2040, compared with 2019. Biofuels, such as ethanol and renewable diesel, will also increase their share of the market to 6.3%, from below 5% in 2019. This is despite the number of kilometers driven each year by cars, bikes and trucks increasing by more than 55%. In BNEF’s 2020 Road Fuels Outlook, we forecast oil demand from the road transport sector to peak in 2031 at 47 million barrels per day before declining to 41.2 million barrels per day in 2040. Together, these forces will have a profound effect on the future of oil in road transport and, in turn, on the refining, fuels marketing and upstream sectors.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |